Why Asia Should Start Worrying About Inflation

Asian economies have stumbled in recent months. High inventories, the lagged effects of tightening in China, and lackluster growth in the West have all taken their toll. Inflation, as a result, has slowed.
But this is a mere cyclical dip in the structural ascent of price pressures across the region. Investors and policymakers alike shouldn't rest too easy. With another stimulus being applied by the world's major central banks, and Asia's return to more vigorous growth in the coming quarters, inflation will again become a cause for worry.
It is easy to lose sight of the bigger picture. The world economy is stuck in a rut. China no longer has its usual swagger, the U.S. dangles over the fiscal cliff, and Europe is lost in contemplation of its enduring problems. Japan, meanwhile, is greying fast, with the occasional stimulus merely painting over its structural cracks. Why, then, should anyone worry about inflation?
First, the cycle masks broader structural trends. Emerging markets, led by Asia, are on the rise. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), they will account for more than 50 percent of world gross domestic product (GDP) for the first time this year. Only 12 short years ago, their share was only 37 percent. Granted, this is measured on a purchasing power basis, but this is ultimately what matters for global inflation. The stagnation in the West is thus no longer enough to hold world prices at bay.
Consider a simple example. In 2000, a percentage point increase in U.S. growth added 0.23 percent to world demand, while a percentage point increase in China's economy contributed a mere 0.07 percent. Today, the numbers are converging rapidly. A one percentage point rise in U.S. GDP now contributes about 0.19 percent to world GDP, while China adds 0.15 percent.
Assuming that the U.S. economy will grow by 2 percent this year, and China, say, by 7.5 percent (Beijing's official target), the contribution of the latter, despite being deemed a disappointment by financial markets, will eclipse that by the U.S. by a factor of at least 3. Even in U.S. dollar terms, the incremental increase in world demand accounted for by China is almost double that by the U.S.
Second, the composition of growth in emerging markets has shifted. Exports are less important today than domestic demand. Asia, for instance, has seen a rapid decline in its once sturdy current surpluses. Local demand, led by services and construction, is much more inflationary than growth that is driven by manufacturing exports.
Third, and unsurprisingly, emerging economies are bumping against growth constraints. Labor markets are much tighter across emerging markets today than only a few years ago. In China, despite the recent deceleration, employment is holding up remarkably well, in contrast to the Global Financial Crisis, when job shedding by exporters led to wide-spread layoffs. And this is not just the case on the mainland, across Asia labor markets have remained highly resilient in the face of faltering growth.
Fourth, global central banks have once more turned on the spigot. The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan just announced further easing. All that extra cash will ultimately flow to where returns are the most promising. We have seen it before, and it's happening again: emerging markets will see their demand pumped up once more as a result. Inflation will be the thing to worry about.
Frederic Neumann is co-head of Asian Economics at HSBC's Global Research and has been covering regional economies for the past 7 years. He is a regular guest on CNBC TV.

http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/why-asia-start-worrying-inflation-060725568.html
 

Vietnam inflation starts rising again in September

Vietnam's inflation accelerated for the first time in 12 months in September, up 6.48 percent on a year earlier, amid fears of a return to rocketing prices as the country grapples with multiple economic woes.
The consumer prices index (CPI) hit a three-year low of 5.04 percent in August, according to the General Statistics Office figures, after an all-out drive by the communist country to bring last year's double-digit inflation under control.
But cooling growth in the country's once-vibrant economy has seen Vietnam cut interest rates five times in 2012.
"Inflation could become again a macro-economic problem in coming months," economist Vu Dinh Anh told AFP.
He said September's CPI hike represented a record monthly increase of 2.2 percent, after increases in prices for key products including petrol.
Vietnam has struggled with double-digit inflation for years. Inflation peaked at 23 percent in August 2011, forcing the government to repeatedly hike interest rates in an effort to prevent the economy from overheating.
The country's economic growth slowed to 4.38 percent in the first half of this year compared with the same period in 2011.
The government is targeting single-digit inflation and a 6.0 to 6.5 percent growth in economic output for 2012. The overall inflation rate for the first nine months of 2012 stood at 9.96 percent year-on-year.

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More metals and minerals companies setting up shop in Singapore

SINGAPORE: More metals and minerals companies are using Singapore as an investment platform to venture into developing markets, such as Indonesia and the Middle East, said Singapore Trade and Industry Minister Lim Hng Kiang.

Speaking at a dinner hosted by the London Metal Exchange (LME) on Friday, Mr Lim said companies have tapped on the country's strong trading infrastructure for exploration and project origination

The companies also benefited from Singapore's network of Investment Guarantee Agreements (IGAs) and Double Tax Avoidance Agreements (DTAs).

Mr Lim said the metal trading sector in Singapore has grown significantly since the establishment of LME's presence here 25 years ago.

Singapore currently captures 10 per cent of the global market share of the trade for aluminium and copper intermediates and Mr Lim said it has attracted many companies to the city-state.

Singapore is home to 26 companies in the metals industry and Mr Lim said they are among the most important global players in the market.

The minister added that despite the volatile global economic environment, aluminium and copper trade is expected to continue to contribute strongly to the growing demand for industrial materials on the back of rapid growth in Asia.

Mr Lim said some companies have estimated that the world's demand for commodities, including base metals, will double over the next 15 to 20 years.

Going forward, Mr Lim said the government is committed to grow Singapore as a complete metals hub for Asia.

It had announced an initiative to enhance Singapore's status as an international trading hub during the annual budget in February.

Under the new initiative, investment-grade gold and other precious metals will be exempted from Singapore's goods and services tax.

Mr Lim welcomed LME's plans to grow its activities in Singapore, including customising training programmes to meet regional needs.

Mr Lim said such activities will help to strengthen LME's industry position, and will also help Singapore to be more attuned to regional demand trends.

U.S. Millionaires Told Go Away as Tax Evasion Rule Looms

That's what some of the world's largest wealth-management firms are saying ahead of Washington's implementation of the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act, known as Fatca, which seeks to prevent tax evasion by Americans with offshore accounts. HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA), Deutsche Bank AG, Bank of Singapore Ltd. and DBS Group Holdings Ltd. (DBS) all say they have turned away business.
"I don't open U.S. accounts, period," said Su Shan Tan, head of private banking at Singapore-based DBS, Southeast Asia's largest lender, who described regulatory attitudes toward U.S. clients as "Draconian."
The 2010 law, to be phased in starting Jan. 1, 2013, requires financial institutions based outside the U.S. to obtain and report information about income and interest payments accrued to the accounts of American clients. It means additional compliance costs for banks and fewer investment options and advisers for all U.S. citizens living abroad, which could affect their ability to generate returns.
"In the long run, if Americans have less and less opportunities to invest overseas, it would be a disadvantage," Marc Faber, the fund manager and publisher of the Gloom, Boom and Doom report, said last month in Singapore.
The almost 400 pages of proposed rules issued by the U.S. Internal Revenue Service in February create "unnecessary burdens and costs," the Institute of International Bankers and the European Banking Federation said in an April 30 letter to the IRS, one of more than 200 submitted to the agency. The IRS plans to hold a hearing May 15 and could amend how and when some aspects of the rules are implemented. It can't rescind the law.

Bank Transparency

The government needs to be tougher on offshore tax crimes than it has been, said U.S. Representative Richard Neal, a Massachusetts Democrat and one of the original sponsors of the legislation. Fatca, introduced after Zurich-based UBS AG (UBS) said in 2009 that it aided tax evasion by Americans and agreed to pay $780 million to avoid prosecution, is already helping to improve banking transparency, he said.
"People should know, and the IRS should know, what money is being held offshore and for what purpose," Neal said. "I don't think there's anything unreasonable about that."
UBS, the world's biggest non-U.S. private bank according to London-based industry tracker Scorpio Partnership Ltd., said in 2008 it would discontinue offshore accounts for U.S. citizens. The firm now refers them to its wealth-management offices in the U.S., or to its Swiss Financial Advisers unit, which complies with U.S. and Swiss regulations, said Serge Steiner, a spokesman for UBS. The company continues to provide Americans outside the U.S. with services other than securities investments, including consumer and commercial loans, foreign-currency spot trading and precious-metals transactions, he said.

'Too Complex'

Investments in products offered by third parties that non- U.S. citizens can purchase through UBS or other banks also may be restricted.
"Most of the hedge funds I know in Asia won't take American clients," said Faber.
Bank of Singapore, the private-banking arm of Oversea- Chinese Banking Corp. (OCBC), ranked strongest in the world for the last two years by Bloomberg Markets magazine, has turned away millions of dollars from Americans because it doesn't want to deal with the regulatory hassle, according to Chief Executive Officer Renato de Guzman. The bank had $32 billion under management as of the beginning of the year.
"It's too complex, too challenging," de Guzman, who at 61 has more than 35 years of banking experience, said in an interview in Singapore in March. "You probably should have a dedicated team to handle them or to understand what can be done or what cannot be done."

Rejecting Americans

At industry meetings he attends in Singapore, not accepting U.S. clients is "quite a prevailing sentiment," de Guzman said. There are 18 private banks operating in Singapore, including units run by UBS, Credit Suisse Group AG, Deutsche Bank (DBK) and HSBC, he said.
"We have enough business in Asia, so we don't want to make our lives too difficult," de Guzman said.
Asia has the world's fastest-growing number of people with more than $1 million in investable assets, according to a report last year by Bank of America Corp. (BAC) and Capgemini SA. Singapore is Asia's largest wealth-management center, with $512 billion in offshore assets in 2010, data compiled by the Boston Consulting Group show. Bank of America is the world's No. 1 wealth manager, with $1.9 trillion under management, followed by Morgan Stanley and UBS, with $1.6 trillion, according to Scorpio.

HSBC, Deutsche Bank

HSBC decided last July that it would no longer offer wealth-management services to Americans from locations outside their home country after tax authorities stepped up a probe of the London-based bank's U.S. clients.
Americans would be "better served" by private bankers in the U.S., Goh Kong Aik, a spokesman for the firm in Singapore, said in an e-mail. He declined to say whether those who already have private-banking accounts abroad will be allowed to remain customers, except that they would be helped through an undefined "transition process."
Deutsche Bank said it terminated securities accounts held abroad by people with U.S. residency as of mid-2011. The action didn't include checking or savings accounts and didn't affect citizens living outside the U.S. The Frankfurt-based bank said "only a small number of customers" were affected.
Spokesmen for Credit Suisse, France's BNP Paribas SA (BNP) and Amsterdam-based ABN Amro Bank NV, also among the top 10 non-U.S. global wealth managers, said their banks are studying the issue and haven't decided what to do with American account holders.

Collateral Damage

"Bank accounts, investment accounts, mortgages and insurance policies are being refused to American clients, and those with accounts are seeing them closed or have been threatened with closure," Marylouise Serrato, executive director of American Citizens Abroad, a Geneva-based organization, wrote in an e-mail.
U.S. citizens who live in countries that aren't served by U.S. banks may find themselves unable to bank at all, and implementation of the law in its current form could cause collateral damage to American businesses abroad, she said.
"Americans either will not be allowed to enter into international partnerships or live and work overseas, and will be replaced by foreign nationals who do not have these limitations," Serrato wrote. "The extensive reporting requirements of Fatca will be destructive to those who wish to do business internationally as well as to those Americans who are legitimately living and working overseas."

'Turned Away'

That view is shared by Richard L. Weisman, Hong Kong-based head of law firm Baker & McKenzie LLP's global tax practice.
"U.S. expatriates already face severe U.S. tax rules related to their non-U.S. income and investments," Weisman said. "Fatca will increase the extent to which they are turned away by non-U.S. financial institutions."
Tan of DBS said she refers Americans seeking private- banking services to U.S. institutions with operations in Singapore such as Citigroup Inc. (C), Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and JPMorgan Chase & Co., which are able to open securities accounts for Americans because they're regulated by U.S. authorities. Such accounts allow purchases of investment products without restricting Americans to cash and time-deposit accounts.
While that may be easy for Americans in Singapore, those who live elsewhere face obstacles. Before Fatca, U.S. citizens in Bangkok or Manila could find investment opportunities through non-U.S. banks such as HSBC. Now their only option is to fly to cities where U.S. firms operate.

Limited Choices

If Americans choose to bank with a non-U.S. firm such as HSBC, their investment choices are limited. At the HSBC branch in the bank's Asia regional headquarters in Hong Kong, Americans can hold only savings deposits. They're prohibited from opening accounts to trade local stocks or buy products available to non- U.S. customers, including 45 equity funds investing in China or other geographies and industries. There's only one comparable emerging-markets equity option available on HSBC's U.S.-based investors' website.
Financial institutions that choose not to accept American customers still must determine whether new or existing clients are so-called U.S. persons in order to comply with Fatca, according to Michael Brevetta, director of U.S. tax consulting at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP in Singapore.
The definition includes citizens, green-card holders and non-Americans deemed U.S. residents by being present in the country for at least 183 days over a three-year period, which makes them subject to U.S. tax on their worldwide income, according to the IRS.

Compliance Costs

The compliance costs for banks, asset managers and insurance companies "could stretch into the billions of dollars," Brevetta said. Private-banking firms in Hong Kong and Singapore already have operating costs between 88 percent and 90 percent of their revenue, compared with 70 percent at Swiss banks, PricewaterhouseCoopers estimated in a September report.
Penalties for not complying will be stiff. Non-U.S. firms that don't make required disclosures will be subject to 30 percent withholding of certain dividends, interest or proceeds from the sale of assets they or their customers receive from U.S. sources, according to Baker & McKenzie's Weisman, who has conducted workshops and seminars on the proposed rules for current and potential clients in Hong Kong and Singapore.
"Overwhelmingly, financial institutions outside the U.S. don't like it, for obvious reasons," Weisman said, calling the withholding tax a "stick" the U.S. is wielding. "The U.S. is outsourcing a tax-compliance function, which is enormously expensive."

Renouncing Citizenship

Americans who don't comply with Fatca are deemed "recalcitrant," and income they receive from U.S. sources also is subject to a 30 percent withholding tax, said Jason Choi, a Singapore-based tax lawyer with Latham & Watkins LLP.
Renouncing citizenship is an option chosen by increasing numbers of Americans. A record 1,780 gave up their U.S. passports last year compared with 235 in 2008, the IRS reported.
Royal Bank of Canada (RY), the sixth-biggest wealth manager with $435 billion under management as of the beginning of 2011, said it sees an opportunity as competition is exiting, including in emerging markets, where it manages $60 billion.
"We are one of the few wealth managers to hold a Securities and Exchange Commission license offering U.S.- compliant investment advice in Switzerland and London and see an opportunity in accepting tax-compliant U.S. persons as clients outside of the U.S.," said Barend Janssens, the Singapore-based head of the bank's wealth-management unit for emerging markets.

Tax Evasion

Coutts, the wealth division of U.K. government-owned Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, plans to comply with Fatca and to continue accepting tax-compliant U.S. persons, according to Tim Winter, associate director of the U.S. Competence Centre at Coutts. The London-based bank has invested since July 2010 in a "global program of work established to support the implementation of Fatca," he said in an e-mail.
The Swiss government has been in talks for more than a year with U.S. authorities, who, after obtaining data on about 4,700 UBS clients, are now investigating 11 other firms, including Zurich-based Credit Suisse (CSGN) and Julius Baer Group Ltd., for alleged assistance in U.S. tax evasion.
Credit Suisse continues to "work hard" to resolve the probe, CEO Brady Dougan said in an interview April 25. Julius Baer exited its U.S. private-client business between 2009 and 2011, said Jan Vonder Muehll, a bank spokesman in Zurich.

Wegelin Forfeiture

Wegelin & Co., a Swiss private bank established in 1741, became the first Swiss lender to face criminal charges in the U.S. crackdown on offshore firms suspected of abetting tax evasion. It had to sell its assets in January to Switzerland's Raiffeisen Group to save its non-U.S. business before the U.S. indicted the firm in February. The St. Gallen-based private bank helped Americans hide more than $1.2 billion in assets and evade taxes, wooing clients spurned by UBS, according to an indictment filed in federal court in New York.
U.S. District Judge Laura Taylor Swain ordered Wegelin to forfeit $16 million on April 24, allowing the U.S. government to take the amount from Wegelin's U.S. account, held at UBS in Stamford, Connecticut. Albena Bjoerck, a spokeswoman for Wegelin, declined to comment.
Spokesmen for Citigroup, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan all declined to comment on how Fatca is affecting their business, with some citing company policies not to discuss government regulation. Standard Chartered Plc (STAN), France's Societe Generale SA, Barclays Plc (BARC) and Hong Kong-based Hang Seng Bank Ltd., which all have wealth-management businesses, also declined to comment.

'Pain for Americans'

The restrictions on products available to Americans may not matter to a savvy investor, according to Hugh Young, who helps manage $70 billion in Asian equities in Singapore for Aberdeen Asset Management Plc.
"The financial institutions can restrict you from some of the best products, but you have others of the best," he said.
Still, the limitations create complications that act as an investment deterrent, said Philip Marcovici, a retired U.S. tax lawyer who advises wealthy families and governments.
"It's a pain for Americans to invest in markets outside of the U.S.," he said.

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AIG to Sell Shares of AIA to Help Repay Bailout

American International Group Inc. (AIG), the bailed-out insurer, said it’s selling shares of AIA Group Ltd. (1299) to unidentified institutional investors as it repays a U.S. government rescue that swelled to $182.3 billion.
The proceeds of the sale, expected to price no later than tomorrow, will be used to reduce obligations to the U.S. Treasury Department, New York-based AIG said yesterday in a statement. The insurer didn’t disclose how many AIA shares it was divesting.
AIG sold about two-thirds of Hong Kong-based AIA in a 2010 initial public offering to help repay the bailout. The remaining stake in the Asian insurer, with a market value of more than $14 billion, is part of the collateral backing obligations to the Treasury. Chief Executive Officer Robert Benmosche said last month that AIG may wait to sell its AIA stake and use the money to reduce the government’s 77 percent ownership.
“We can think about using the proceeds if we decide to sell AIA potentially for capital management,” Benmosche, 67, said at a Feb. 15 investor conference in New York. “Capital management means we can buy some of the overhang from the U.S. Treasury.”
AIG is barred from selling or hedging more than half of its remaining stake in AIA until April 18, the company has said in regulatory filings.
The Treasury sold 200 million AIG shares on May 24 for $29 each. The government must receive an average of at least $28.72 a share to recoup its investment. AIG shares surged 28 percent this year to $29.80 on March 2, as the insurer reported fourth- quarter profit of $19.8 billion tied to a tax benefit. The stock closed above the government’s break-even price on Feb. 28 for the first time since July. AIA has climbed 20 percent to HK$29.20 this year through March 2.

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Soros: Greek Bailout Won’t Rid Europe of Danger

NEWS UPDATE

Soros: Greek Bailout Won’t Rid Europe of Danger

Billionaire investor George Soros predicted weak growth and lingering political tension that could shatter Europe’s economic union even if Greece agrees to austerity measures.
“Right now the European Union and particularly the heavily indebted countries face a lost decade,” Soros said. “It might actually be longer than a decade because Japan that had a similar situation with the real estate boom and the banking crisis has had now 25 years of no growth,” Soros said.
“That will create tensions within the European Union, which could destroy the European Union,” he said. “And that’s a real danger.”
Soros spoke in an interview taped on Feb. 9 for CNN’s “Fareed Zakaria GPS,” scheduled to air today.
A package of budget, wage and pension cuts that Greece’s parliment could adopt as soon as tomorrow is “not necessarily going to work in the long run,” Soros said. “But it will certainly buy you another six months of quiet on the Greek front.”
“Greece is a sick situation” that has been “mishandled” by European authorities and “will continue to be an irritant and a problem for Europe,” Soros said. The European Union, once a desirable objective, has become “more of an imposition,” he said.
The interim government of Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos Feb.10 approved budget cuts needed to secure a second package of aid from euro-zone finance ministers, preparing the way for a ratification vote in parliament today.

Signs of Revival

In the U.S., the economy “shows some signs of revival,” thanks in part to the emergence of shale gas and oil and years of low-wage growth, which have lowered manufacturing costs, Soros said.
President Barack Obama, who has done a “mixed job”, deserves a second term, Soros said.
“The problems that he inherited, because he came in immediately after a financial crisis, were bigger than any president could have immediately remedied,” Soros said. “So, whoever gets elected now has a much better chance of being successful than Obama had.”
He endorsed Obama’s “Buffett rule,” named after fellow billionaire Warren Buffett, to require those earning more than $1 million a year to be taxed at a minimum rate of 30 percent.
“The big boom, the super bubble, really resulted in a great increase in inequity. Now we have the after-effect where you have slow growth one way or the other,” Soros said.
“If you could have better distribution of income, then the average American would actually be better off as a result. But that is totally politically unacceptable.”
Soros said he would pay more in taxes under the plan.
“My tax bill would go up a lot if you had a minimum tax. But I’m willing to pay that because I think if everybody who made as much money as I do gave as much as I do, I wouldn’t advocate it,” Soros said. “I think the free riders should also pay.”

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